The front page of Kommersant newspaper captured the intensity of the moment: “Vladimir Putin Draws His Red Line.” The key questions now are whether the West will cross it, and how Russia might respond if they do.

Speaking in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin issued a stark warning to Western nations: do not allow Ukraine to use your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory. Putin stated that if such actions were taken, Moscow would consider it “direct participation” by NATO countries in the Ukraine conflict.

“It would fundamentally change the very essence of the conflict,” Putin declared. “This would mean that NATO countries, the USA, and European states are at war with Russia.” He further claimed that Ukraine would need data from Western satellites for missile strikes into Russia, and that only personnel from NATO member states would be capable of programming these missile systems.

This isn’t the first time Russia has drawn red lines, only to see them crossed. On February 24, 2022, when Putin announced the “special military operation”—Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—he warned against interference from other nations.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately,” Putin said, cautioning that the consequences would be “unlike anything seen in history.”

At the time, Western leaders largely dismissed what was seen as nuclear saber-rattling. Since then, the West has supplied Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems, and most recently, American F-16 fighter jets. Earlier this year, Russia accused Ukraine of using American long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia.