Ontario Premier Doug Ford issued a stark warning Wednesday, suggesting Canada could cut energy exports to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Trump has conditioned the sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico taking action to curb the flow of drugs and migrants into the U.S.
“We’re going to put our list together, and I’m sure the other provinces will as well. But we will go to the full extent, depending on how far this goes. We will go to the extent of cutting off their energy,” Ford stated after a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers.
While expressing reluctance to resort to such measures, Ford admitted his pessimism about avoiding a trade clash. “This fight is 100% coming on Jan. 20 or Jan. 21,” he said, referencing Trump’s inauguration date.
The U.S. relies heavily on Canadian energy, importing approximately 60% of its crude oil and 85% of its electricity from its northern neighbor. It was unclear if Ford’s remarks pertained to all provinces or were specific to Ontario, but his spokesperson, Grace Lee, confirmed that the possibility of energy export cuts was discussed during the meeting.
Ontario alone powers about 1.5 million U.S. homes annually and is a key electricity supplier to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. “Premier Ford can only speak on behalf of Ontario, but it’s an area of provincial jurisdiction that we would certainly look at,” Lee said.
Canada is also a primary supplier of steel, aluminum, uranium, and 34 critical minerals essential to U.S. national security.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland reinforced Canada’s commitment to defending its trade interests. “Canada, of course, will respond to unjustified tariffs,” she stated, adding that provincial leaders were unified in supporting a robust response, potentially including measures targeting critical minerals.
The U.S.-Canada trade relationship is significant, with nearly CAD $3.6 billion (USD $2.7 billion) worth of goods and services crossing the border daily. Canada is also the top export destination for 36 U.S. states.
Canada has pledged to enhance border security in an effort to address Trump’s concerns. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced plans to deploy additional police, drones, and sniffer dogs at the border, measures that will be presented to Trump’s incoming administration in the coming days.
As tensions rise ahead of Trump’s inauguration, Ford’s warning highlights the high stakes of a potential trade battle and the deep interdependence between the Canadian and U.S. economies.
