Nigeria’s inflation rate has continued its downward trend, dropping to 18.02 percent in September from 20.12 percent in August 2025 — marking the sixth straight month of decline and the first time in three years that inflation has fallen below the 20-percent mark.
The latest figures were released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, in its Consumer Price Index report.
According to the Bureau, inflation slowed by 2.1 percent compared to the previous month, while on a year-on-year basis, the rate was 14.68 percent lower than the 32.70 percent recorded in September 2024.
On a monthly basis, the headline inflation stood at 0.72 percent, slightly below August’s 0.74 percent, showing a slower increase in average prices.
The food inflation rate also dropped sharply to 16.87 percent year-on-year — about 21 percentage points lower than the figure for the same period last year. The NBS attributed the fall partly to a change in the CPI base year and reduced prices of staple items like maize, beans, garri, millet, potatoes, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, declined to 19.53 percent in September, down from 27.43 percent a year earlier.
Urban inflation saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.74 percent, while rural inflation dipped to 18.26 percent year-on-year.
At the state level, Adamawa, Katsina, and Nasarawa recorded the highest inflation rates, while Anambra, Niger, and Bauchi had the lowest.
Economists say the consistent drop in inflation is partly due to the rebasing of the CPI earlier this year and recent policy actions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, including a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.
Analyst Lukman Otunuga of FXTM said, “A combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira may have tamed price pressures. Further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for further rate cuts by the CBN in November to stimulate economic growth.”
Experts at Arthur Steven Asset Management agreed, saying the sustained disinflation could lead to another rate reduction at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Meanwhile, AIICO Capital, in its latest Inflation Watch report, noted that the trend reflects the positive impact of government reforms and a more stable foreign exchange rate. The firm said, “Following the MPC’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to 27 percent in September, the sharp decline in inflation, now approaching the 15 percent budget benchmark, signals the possibility of further rate cuts before year-end.”
Economists, however, cautioned that maintaining stability will depend on consistent policy implementation, stronger food security, and steady energy prices.
