Voting is underway in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is seeking a breakthrough that could make it the first far-right party to lead a German state government since World War II.
Pre-election surveys put the AfD at about 40 percent, well ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, at around 23 percent.
The AfD has maintained a commanding lead in opinion polls for months and could potentially secure an absolute majority in the state parliament if several smaller parties fail to cross the 5 percent threshold required to win seats.
If the AfD falls short of a majority, forming a government could prove complicated because Germany’s mainstream parties have generally maintained a “firewall” policy of refusing to cooperate with the party.
Under that scenario, a CDU-led administration headed by incumbent state premier Sven Schulze could emerge, depending on which parties secure representation in the state parliament. The result could trigger weeks of coalition negotiations.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, a former CDU member, has predicted his party will win an outright majority. He has also portrayed the Saxony-Anhalt election as a potential stepping stone toward the AfD’s broader goal of gaining national power in Germany’s 2029 federal election.
“If no one wants to work with us, then we’ll just have to do it alone,” Siegmund told German newspaper Bild, referring to the political firewall maintained by rival parties.
An absolute majority would allow the AfD to govern without needing coalition partners, effectively bypassing the noncooperation strategy adopted by mainstream parties.
The vote is also being closely watched nationally as a test for the CDU, led at the federal level by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose government has faced declining public support.
The final distribution of seats will depend heavily on whether smaller parties receive enough votes to clear the 5 percent threshold, potentially determining whether the AfD can govern alone or whether rival parties will need to negotiate a coalition.
