A fresh jobs report, set for release on Friday, will offer a first full-month assessment of the U.S. economy under President Donald Trump, providing insight into hiring trends, unemployment, and economic stability.

Economists predict that 170,000 jobs were added in February, marking a modest increase from the 143,000 jobs gained in January and aligning closely with last year’s monthly average. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%, a historically low level.

The report arrives amid turbulence in U.S. markets, fueled by Trump’s recent tariff policies. Despite the administration temporarily withdrawing some tariffs on Thursday, markets continued to react negatively.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 425 points (1%)
• The S&P 500 dropped 1.7%
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 2.6%

The tariffs are part of a broader economic agenda rolled out by the Trump administration, including spending cuts and the rollback of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.

Additionally, the administration has terminated tens of thousands of federal employees, though these job losses are unlikely to appear in February’s report due to the timing of data collection.

The economy is also grappling with resurgent inflation.

• Consumer prices rose 3% in January, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
• Egg prices skyrocketed 53% due to a bird flu outbreak affecting supply.
• Consumer confidence dropped sharply, marking its biggest monthly decline since August 2021, according to the Conference Board.

The share of consumers expecting a recession within the next year has surged to a nine-month high, with growing concerns over:
A weaker job market
A declining stock market
Rising interest rates

However, some positive signs remain:

• Consumer sentiment toward current business conditions improved
• Home buying interest is rising, continuing a months-long rebound
• Mortgage rates have declined for seven consecutive weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.63%, its lowest level since December, according to Freddie Mac

As Trump’s economic policies continue to take shape, the February jobs report will serve as a key indicator of labor market strength, while ongoing concerns over inflation, trade, and consumer sentiment leave uncertainty looming over the broader economy.