China’s trade surplus soared to a record nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by strong global exports that offset sharply declining shipments to the United States amid President Donald Trump’s intensified tariff campaign.
Customs data released Wednesday showed China’s exports rose 5.5% last year to $3.77 trillion, while imports remained flat at $2.58 trillion. The result pushed the annual surplus above the previous record of $992 billion in 2024 and past the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
December exports climbed 6.6% year-over-year, outperforming expectations, while imports rose 5.7%, signaling sustained external demand despite trade tensions.
Shipments to the U.S. fell 20% over the year as tariffs took effect, but losses were offset by expanding exports to other regions. Exports to Africa jumped 26%, Southeast Asia 13%, the European Union 8%, and Latin America 7%, led by growth in automobiles, computer chips, electronics and industrial materials.
Analysts say exports will remain a key engine for China’s economy in 2026. BNP Paribas chief China economist Jacqueline Rong noted that overseas shipments are expected to continue driving growth despite geopolitical and trade frictions.
China’s export strength has helped keep economic growth near the government’s 5% target. However, the surge has raised concerns among foreign governments about cheap Chinese imports undercutting local industries.
Vice Minister of Customs Wang Jun warned that China faces a “severe and complex” trade environment this year but insisted foreign trade fundamentals remain strong.
Meanwhile, domestic demand continues to lag. A prolonged property downturn and weak consumer confidence have limited the impact of government stimulus efforts, including subsidies encouraging purchases of energy-efficient appliances and vehicles.
Economists expect export growth to slow slightly in 2026 but project China’s trade surplus will remain above $1 trillion, reinforcing the country’s reliance on external markets as domestic recovery struggles to gain momentum.
