Millions of Turkish citizens are casting their votes in elections to determine the leadership of their largest cities, signaling a critical moment in the country’s political landscape. These elections will determine whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party can regain control of key municipalities from the opposition.

Istanbul, Turkey’s economic and social hub, holds particular significance in these elections. Five years ago, the city was won by a unified opposition, led by the popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, marking a significant shift in the country’s political dynamics. Now, Erdogan, who hails from Istanbul, is determined to reclaim the city, making the current vote a closely contested affair.

The outcome of the Istanbul elections carries broader implications, serving as a litmus test for the opposition’s ability to challenge Erdogan and his ruling AK Party in future presidential elections. Losing control of Istanbul in the 2019 local elections was a major blow for Erdogan, further underscoring the significance of this electoral contest.

“Istanbul is his home. Losing Istanbul to the opposition in the 2019 local elections was devastating for him,” remarked Ihsan Aktas, a faculty member at Istanbul Medipol University’s Department of Communication and chair of the Genar Political Research Centre.

Istanbul holds a special place in Erdogan’s personal and political journey. Born and raised in the city, Erdogan started his career by selling sesame bread snacks known as Simits before entering politics in the 1970s. Beginning as the head of an Islamist party’s youth branch in the Beyoglu district, he steadily climbed the political ladder, eventually serving as mayor of Istanbul, prime minister, and ultimately, president of Turkey.

In last year’s presidential elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan clinched a third term in office. However, in this current round of elections, the primary opposition party, the secular CHP, aims to retain control over major cities it won back in a dramatic upset five years ago. These cities include not only Istanbul but also the capital Ankara and the popular tourist destination of Antalya.