Progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani has surged ahead in New York City’s mayoral race, nearly doubling Andrew Cuomo’s support in the first independent general election poll, according to a new Times/Siena College survey released Tuesday.

In the crowded four-way contest, Mamdani leads with 46% of likely voters, while former Governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 24%. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican Guardian Angels founder, holds 15%, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams garners just 9%.

However, the poll reveals a far narrower contest if the race were reduced to just Mamdani and Cuomo. In that hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mamdani maintains a slim edge—48% to 44%— suggesting a highly competitive showdown if the field were to consolidate.

The findings have renewed calls from Cuomo supporters to shrink the race, arguing that vote-splitting on the center-right is bolstering Mamdani’s lead.

Despite growing pressure, both Mayor Adams and Curtis Sliwa have vowed to stay in the race, complicating Cuomo’s path to a comeback. The poll suggests that Mamdani’s advantage could significantly shrink only if both candidates were to suspend their campaigns—a scenario that remains unlikely.

Alarmed by the polling numbers, leading real estate executives—traditionally skeptical of Mamdani’s progressive policies—are reportedly organizing a closed-door emergency meeting aimed at coalescing financial and institutional support behind Cuomo.