The record-breaking heatwave sweeping across Western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change, according to a new analysis by climate scientists, who say rising global temperatures have dramatically increased the likelihood of such extreme events.
Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said Friday that the current heatwave is the most intense ever recorded across the region studied.
The analysis found that exceptionally high overnight temperatures experienced this week are now about 100 times more likely than they were just two decades ago because of human-driven global warming.
Britain recorded its hottest June day on record on Thursday as the prolonged heatwave continued to affect large parts of Europe, contributing to dozens of deaths, disrupting electricity supplies and forcing the closure of schools and cultural landmarks.
According to the WWA, climate change has significantly intensified European heatwaves in only a few decades. Researchers estimated that a comparable heatwave in June 1976 would have been approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius cooler than the current event.
The study also found that nearly half of the more than 800 European cities analyzed have either recorded—or are expected to record—their highest levels of heat stress for late June.
Heat stress occurs when the human body can no longer cool itself effectively through sweating, increasing the risk of heat exhaustion, heat stroke and other potentially life-threatening conditions.
Scientists say years of research consistently show that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves both more frequent and more severe.
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, has raised the Earth’s average temperature by about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at Imperial College London and a co-author of the WWA study, warned that record-breaking temperatures are likely to become increasingly common unless global warming is slowed.
“We are not doing enough to slow the rate of global warming,” Barnes said. “As warming continues, we should expect record temperatures to be exceeded more and more frequently.”
Europe remains the fastest-warming continent in the world, making it particularly vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat.
Researchers cautioned that the full health impact of the current heatwave has yet to emerge. They pointed to a previous scientific study estimating that more than 60,000 people died from heat-related causes during a series of European heatwaves in the summer of 2022.
As temperatures remain dangerously high across much of the continent, scientists continue to stress the need for stronger climate action alongside improved public health measures to protect vulnerable populations from increasingly frequent extreme weather events.
