On Thursday, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are slated to visit the US-Mexico border, engaging in a high-stakes political showdown over an issue with potential implications for the upcoming US presidential election.

The border witnessed the crossing of 2.5 million undocumented migrants last year, causing strain on processing facilities and stretching social services in major American cities to their limits. This day presents an opportunity for President Biden to convey a commitment to addressing immigration concerns, while former President Trump’s visit serves as another chance to emphasize an issue central to his political agenda.

Although November’s general election is anticipated to feature a Biden-Trump rematch, both candidates are yet to secure their party nominations. Trump’s visit is focused on Eagle Pass, a Texas border town where Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, has challenged the Biden administration by deploying state National Guard soldiers to detain undocumented migrants and install border barricades, including razor-wire fences criticized as inhumane by some.

The former president is expected to highlight assertive measures like these and attribute them to the recent decline in border crossings in Texas, contrasting with the surge observed in Arizona and California, states governed by Democrats.

The White House’s recent announcement of President Biden’s visit to Brownsville, Texas, suggests that Democrats are hastily addressing a perceived vulnerability. During Biden’s tenure, over 6.3 million migrants have been apprehended crossing into the US illegally, surpassing figures from previous administrations. However, experts emphasize that the factors contributing to the increase are multifaceted, with some predating his administration.

“He should head down there, make an appearance, and grasp the current situation,” suggests Jaime Dominguez, a political science professor at Northwestern University. Dominguez points out that Mr. Biden has faced criticism for not addressing this issue sooner, emphasizing that public perception carries weight.

This perception is reflected in public opinion polls, portraying a challenging scenario for the president. In a recent Gallup survey, 28% of Americans identified immigration as their top concern, surpassing other issues such as the economy and inflation. A Harris poll indicated that Mr. Biden’s approval rating on the immigration issue is at 35%, marking his lowest rating on any specific matter. In a Monmouth survey, 61% of Americans considered illegal immigration a “very serious problem,” with a majority supporting Mr. Trump’s proposal to build a US-Mexico border wall for the first time.

Leaders in major Democratic-controlled cities have become increasingly critical of the president’s immigration policies. This criticism stems from the influx of hundreds of thousands of migrants arriving in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, either on their own or with transportation arranged by Republican governors in states such as Texas.

“Mayors with very progressive stances are confronted with this challenge, and they are urging the federal government to take action,” Professor Dominguez observes. “This is not an issue that Democrats can simply ignore or dismiss as acceptable.”

Mr Biden’s second visit to the border during his presidency seems to be a strategic move to counteract this trend and shift the focus away from Republicans. The aim is to minimize political fallout and allow the election narrative to revolve around other issues like the economy or abortion rights.

The Biden team has been criticizing Mr Trump and congressional Republicans for obstructing bipartisan immigration reform legislation passed by the Senate in the House of Representatives this month. They point to former President Trump’s statements claiming he wanted to prevent Mr Biden from achieving success on border security as proof that Republicans are not genuinely addressing the issue.

“Dems exposed Republicans who, for 30 years, claimed we need border security,” says Douglas Rivlin, Senior Communications Director for the pro-immigration group America’s Voice. “Republicans walked away because they’re not interested in actually resolving these issues; they’re interested in demonizing immigrants as a crucial political strategy.”

Mr Rivlin highlights that Republicans attempted to leverage immigration fears in recent national elections, including 2018, 2020, and 2022, with limited success.

As the White House shifts its focus on immigration, another aspect of this strategy could involve implementing stricter border measures and more rigid asylum policies. The administration has hinted that the president may announce these measures in the coming days, aiming to counter criticism that they haven’t adequately addressed what the president himself recently termed a “crisis.”

However, there’s a potential drawback, as these measures might alienate pro-immigration factions within Mr Biden’s political base. This could exacerbate existing strains within the electoral coalition, especially given the president’s support for Israel in the conflict in Gaza.

“If the president is merely discussing the border and adopting Trump’s talking points, it may not resonate well,” warns Mr Rivlin. “There’s a risk of angering people within his own base without effectively convincing anyone that he’s as strong as Republicans on border issues.”