Political analyst Abubakar Turaki has warned that the All Progressives Congress (APC) cannot rely on its control of 31 state governments and millions of members as an automatic guarantee of victory in the 2027 general election.

Turaki made the remarks during an appearance on S24 TV on Monday, while analysing the political atmosphere ahead of the elections and the controversy over the chanting of “On Your Mandate We Shall Stand” during President Bola Tinubu’s presentation of the budget at the National Assembly.

He argued that Tinubu could have simply asked those chanting to stop if he was uncomfortable with the slogan.

“If the President does not want this kind of chanting, he could have simply asked them to keep quiet,” Turaki said.

The analyst also cited former President Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat in the 2015 presidential election, recalling accounts in Jonathan’s book, My Transition Hours, and Olusegun Adeniyi’s Against the Run of Play.

He noted that Jonathan had the support of between 20 and 24 state governors during his re-election campaign but still lost, arguing that political control and numerical strength do not necessarily translate into electoral victory.

“Having 31 state governors and almost 13 million APC members does not automatically translate into winning the 2027 election,” he added.

Turaki further alleged that some members of the ruling party were working against its interests despite publicly identifying with the APC.

He referenced comments attributed to Senator Ali Ndume, who reportedly warned that some politicians wore the APC cap in the morning but worked against the party in the evening.

“Senator Ndume made it clear that there are people wearing the APC cap in the morning, but in the evening they are working against the party,” Turaki said.

The analyst also questioned the internal democratic processes of political parties, citing controversies surrounding vote counting during party activities.

He said videos showing difficulties with vote counting had raised concerns about the conduct of internal party processes.

“I wonder if a full-grown adult cannot count. It is simply arithmetic. We all saw the videos. It cut across all the political parties that conducted their activities,” he said.

Turaki maintained that party membership figures and the number of states controlled by a political party should not be treated as decisive indicators of the outcome of the 2027 elections.

He described the forthcoming polls as a significant political contest and urged Nigerians to expect an interesting electoral process.