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Oil Prices Swing as Trump Weighs Scaling Back Iran War Amid Hormuz Disruption

Oil prices fluctuated sharply at the close of a volatile month, driven by shifting signals from President Donald Trump and renewed attacks on shipping in the Gulf.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate hovered near $103 per barrel after surging nearly 4% following an Iranian attack on a tanker in the Persian Gulf. Prices swung within a wide range during the session, while global benchmark Brent crude remained on track for a significant monthly gain.

Market volatility intensified after reports that Trump is considering ending U.S. military operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. According to officials cited in media reports, the administration believes reopening the strait could prolong the conflict beyond its intended timeline.

Instead, U.S. strategy may focus on degrading Iran’s naval and missile capabilities before winding down active combat operations.

Trump has delivered mixed messaging on the war’s trajectory, at times suggesting a near-term resolution while also warning of further escalation. On Monday, he said the U.S. could target Iranian power plants, oil facilities, and potentially desalination infrastructure if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict, now entering its fifth week, has effectively shut down one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, restricting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. The disruption has driven global energy prices higher and raised fears of a broader inflationary shock.

Fighting continues across the region, including recent strikes involving U.S., Israeli, and Iranian forces, as well as attacks on commercial shipping, underscoring the ongoing instability in global energy markets.

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