In late August, a tense exchange took place between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a steelworker in northern Ontario, capturing national attention. When Trudeau extended his hand for a handshake, the worker refused and confronted him about struggling to make ends meet despite having a stable job. Trudeau responded by highlighting initiatives from his Liberal government, including a national dental care program and tariffs on Chinese steel meant to protect Canadian jobs. The worker, however, remained unconvinced, telling the prime minister, “I don’t believe you for a second,” and predicting Trudeau’s tenure would last just another year.

This exchange, which has garnered millions of views online, is seen by some, including the *Toronto Globe and Mail*, as a snapshot of Trudeau’s current political struggles. After nearly a decade in office, his approval ratings have plummeted, falling from 63% when he first took office to just 28% in June 2023.

The declining popularity of both Trudeau and his Liberal Party was evidenced by the recent loss of a long-held Toronto seat to the opposition Conservative Party. Now, Trudeau faces further tests, including a by-election in Montreal and the resumption of Parliament, where Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has signaled his intention to push for a no-confidence vote.

Should Poilievre succeed, Canada could be heading toward an early federal election, which polls suggest could end Trudeau’s leadership. Darrell Bricker, a political scientist and pollster, compared Trudeau’s situation to the historic defeat of the UK Tories earlier this year, saying, “It’s basically over… We’re working our way towards an inevitable conclusion.”

Trudeau, once a symbol of progressive change when first elected in 2015, now faces mounting dissatisfaction. Canadians are grappling with rising costs of living, housing crises, healthcare struggles, and growing crime. While many of these issues are beyond federal control, the frustrations have been largely directed at Trudeau.

Author and former policy advisor Omer Aziz described the current political climate as a “systemic political failure,” with Canadians increasingly feeling that Trudeau has failed to deliver on his promises. Calls for his resignation from within his own party have intensified, and even Trudeau’s campaign manager stepped down in September after expressing doubt about the prime minister’s chances in the next election.

Despite this, Trudeau continues to defend his government’s policies and is attempting to draw a clear contrast with the opposition, positioning himself as an advocate for investment in Canadians while accusing Poilievre of wanting to cut critical programs. However, opinion surveys show an increasing gap between Trudeau’s Liberals and Poilievre’s Conservatives, further highlighting the challenges ahead for the prime minister.