The election will be Israel’s first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip, which has drawn allegations of genocide and intensified international scrutiny of the Israeli government.
The vote is widely regarded as one of the most consequential in Israel’s history, with voters facing competing visions for the country’s security, political leadership and future direction.
However, opinion polls suggest that neither Netanyahu’s governing alliance nor the main opposition bloc is likely to secure a parliamentary majority, raising the possibility of difficult coalition negotiations or another period of political instability.
Israel’s political system is based on proportional representation, with parties required to secure at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset.
A parliamentary majority requires at least 61 seats, and the Knesset ordinarily serves a four-year term.
Two major political blocs are competing to lead the next government.
The first is the pro-Netanyahu alliance, led by the prime minister’s Likud party and supported by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox political groups.
These include United Torah Judaism and Shas, both representing conservative religious constituencies.
The alliance also includes Otzma Yehudi, led by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism-Zehut, associated with far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Netanyahu’s coalition has faced growing criticism over its handling of the Gaza war, regional security challenges and domestic political divisions.
The main opposition alliance brings together several parties seeking to replace Netanyahu and establish an alternative government.
Among them are Yashar, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, and the Democrats, headed by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan.
The opposition also includes Yisrael Beiteinu, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance, headed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid is also part of the Together alliance.
Despite their political differences, these parties share the objective of ending Netanyahu’s leadership.
The latest opinion surveys, published before a ban on new polling took effect on Friday, suggest that neither political bloc is positioned to win enough seats to govern independently.
A poll conducted by Israeli public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would secure 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats, leaving 18 seats for parties outside the two main alliances.
Among those parties are Israel’s two major Arab-majority political lists: Ra’am, also known as the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance comprising Hadash, Balad and Ta’al.
The projected results highlight the fragmented nature of Israeli politics and the potential influence of smaller parties in determining the composition of the next government.
However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out forming governing coalitions with Arab-led parties for now, further complicating the path to a parliamentary majority.
With neither major alliance projected to reach the required 61 seats, the election could be followed by prolonged negotiations among political parties.
Party leaders may be forced to seek agreements with smaller factions or reconsider existing political alliances to establish a workable government.
If negotiations fail to produce a majority coalition, Israel could face the possibility of a minority government dependent on outside parliamentary support.
Another election could also become necessary if political leaders are unable to form a functioning administration.
The election takes place against the backdrop of years of conflict and political tension that have significantly shaped Israeli society.
The war in Gaza, Israel’s broader regional confrontations and growing international criticism have placed national security and government accountability at the center of political debate.
At home, divisions over Netanyahu’s leadership and the country’s political direction have contributed to an increasingly polarized electorate.
The election will therefore test not only the strength of Netanyahu’s political support but also the ability of opposition parties to translate public dissatisfaction into a viable governing majority.
As voters prepare to cast their ballots Tuesday, the outcome remains uncertain.
Even if one bloc emerges with the largest number of seats, the decisive political battle may come afterward, when party leaders attempt to assemble the parliamentary support needed to govern.
The results could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power, an opposition-led administration takes office or Israel enters another period of political deadlock.
