European politicians and diplomats were already bracing for changes in their relationship with the US in the event of a second Donald Trump presidency. With the recent selection of Ohio Senator JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, the potential differences on issues such as the war in Ukraine, security, and trade have become even more pronounced.

Mr. Vance, known for his vocal criticism of US aid to Ukraine, emphasized at this year’s Munich Security Conference that Europe should be prepared for the US to “pivot” its focus to East Asia. “The American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy,” he stated.

Nils Schmid, a senior MP in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, expressed confidence that a Republican presidency would remain committed to NATO, despite JD Vance’s “more isolationist” stance and Trump’s “unpredictable” nature. However, Schmid cautioned that a second Trump presidency could usher in a new era of “trade wars” with the US.

An EU diplomat, speaking anonymously, noted that after four years of Donald Trump, no one was naïve about what a second term could entail. The diplomat compared the EU to a sailing boat preparing for a storm, acknowledging that while some preparations might be made, the journey would inevitably be turbulent.

Despite concerns, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine expressed a willingness to work with Trump if he becomes president again, believing that most Republicans support Ukraine. Zelensky and Trump also share a mutual ally in Boris Johnson, the former UK prime minister, who has been a strong advocate for continued aid to Ukraine. Johnson recently met Trump at the Republican National Convention and expressed confidence in Trump’s support for Ukraine.

However, Vance’s stance is more contentious. Just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he stated on a podcast that he “doesn’t really care what happens in Ukraine, one way or the other.” He also played a significant role in delaying a $60 billion military aid package from Washington. Yevhen Mahda, Executive Director of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv, believes efforts should be made to convince Vance otherwise, suggesting that his military background could be leveraged to persuade him by inviting him to witness the situation in Ukraine firsthand.

The extent of Vance’s influence over Trump’s decisions remains a key concern for Kyiv, especially given Trump’s unpredictability. Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a strong supporter of the Trump-Vance ticket, recently visited both Trump and President Putin. In a letter to EU leaders, Orban asserted that a victorious Trump would swiftly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, even before his official inauguration.